Duke vs Houston Predictions, Odds & Picks for Sweet 16 Matchup

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Duke defender Jeremy Roach celebrates a three-point basket

Mar 24, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils defender Jeremy Roach (3) reacts against nan James Madison Dukes successful nan 2nd information of nan 2024 NCAA Tournament astatine Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

  • Duke takes connected Houston successful nan second-last crippled of nan Sweet 16 connected Friday, March 29
  • The Houston Cougars are listed arsenic nan favorites, but are they a bully bet?
  • See my picks, predictions, and nan champion likelihood for each broadside below

The seventh crippled of nan Sweet 16 sees #4 Duke return connected #1 Houston successful South Region action. These person been 2 of nan apical teams successful nan state each twelvemonth and it’s bound to beryllium a awesome game. The 2 teams participate their Sweet 16 matchup coming disconnected very different experiences successful nan Round of 32.

The crippled is scheduled to tip-off connected Friday, March 29 astatine 9:39pm ET and tin beryllium seen connected CBS. (Just beryllium alert that this crippled is being played astatine America Airlines Center correct aft NC State vs Marquette. So, if that crippled runs a small long, nan extremity for Duke vs Houston will besides get pushed back.)

Duke vs Houston Odds

Team Spread Total Moneyline
Duke -4.5 (-120) O 133.5 (-115) +160
Houston -4.5 (+100) U 133.5 (-105) -190

The #1 Houston Cougars are 4.5-point favorites successful their matchup pinch Duke. Houston is fixed -190 likelihood to triumph nan game, which comes retired to a 65.5% probability to triumph nan game.

If you stake $20 connected Houston to win, you would guidelines to triumph $10.53 and return $30.53. If you placed that aforesaid $20 stake connected Duke astatine +160 odds, your imaginable profit would beryllium $32 while returning $52.

Houston opened arsenic a 4-point favorite successful their Sweet 16 matchup pinch Duke, and nan full opened astatine 133. Some sportsbooks still person Houston -4, but astir person moved to 4.5 now. One betting app has gone nan different measurement pinch nan spread, moving to 3.5.

The Duke vs Houston likelihood successful nan array supra are from ESPN Bet.

If you already person a stake successful mind and are only present to find nan champion odds, I person rounded up nan champion sportsbook to spot each stake astatine below:

  • Best sportsbook for Houston ML = BetMGM (-189)
  • Best sportsbook for Duke ML = bet365 (+165)
  • Best sportsbook for Houston dispersed = BetMGM (-3.5 astatine -120)
  • Best sportsbook for Duke dispersed = FanDuel (+4.5 astatine -115)
  • Best sportsbook for complete = FanDuel (133.5 astatine -115)
  • Best sportsbook for nether = DraftKings (134.5 astatine -112)

But if you’re not seeing this article correct distant – cheque nan people day astatine nan apical – past you should besides consult our college hoops odds to guarantee a amended value hasn’t emerged since publish.

Duke Offense Enters Sweet 16 Red-Hot

After a beautiful mediocre shooting capacity against Vermont successful nan first round, Duke’s discourtesy exploded against James Madison successful nan Round of 32. As a team, they changeable 52% from nan section and an highly awesome 50% (14/28) from down nan three-point line. The shot was moving from side-to-side and players were passing up decent looks to springiness their teammates moreover amended looks. The Blue Devils only had 11 made section goals that went unassisted against James Madison.


🔥 30 burger pinch 11 minutes to go

🔥 Most 1H points by immoderate subordinate successful this tourney

🔥 Most 3pt FGM successful an NCAA Tournament by a Duke subordinate (8) pic.twitter.com/azdmyZ9b0H

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 24, 2024

Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor did nan mostly of nan harm from down nan three-point line, shooting 8/11 and 4/10, respectively. McCain led nan squad pinch 30 points successful conscionable 31 minutes, while Proctor, Jeremy Roach, and Kyle Filipowski each scored double-digit points arsenic well. It will beryllium important that Roach is disposable for Duke aft suffering a dislocated digit connected Sunday – early reports propose he will beryllium capable to go.

What should beryllium astir concerning to Houston, successful my opinion, is that we person yet to spot Filipowski do overmuch this tournament. After averaging a team-high 16.6 points per crippled this season, Duke’s prima halfway attempted conscionable 1 changeable against Vermont and only needed 8 attempts against James Madison. This is simply a subordinate who was beautiful regularly pouring successful 20-25+ points erstwhile Duke needed him.

If Filipowski gets going down debased and McCain, Proctor, and Roach enactment basking from deep, this Duke squad will beryllium reliable to stop.

Houston Must Stay Out of Foul Trouble & Rebound

According to TheGameHaus.com, Houston has been an early prime from nan commencement of nan tournament. However, they were fixed rather nan scare successful nan 2nd round.

One of nan reasons for Houston’s scare successful nan 2nd information was nan foul problem they sewage themselves into. The Cougars committed 28 individual fouls, and had to play without LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp, some fouled out, down nan stretch. For perspective, nan Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles averaged nan astir individual fouls per crippled this play astatine 21.6.

Houston only averages 17.9 individual fouls per crippled for nan season, which ranks 268th successful nan country. The bully news is Duke only draws an mean of 16.2 fouls per crippled connected their force (244th), while their Round of 32 opponent, Texas A&M, was 16th successful nan country, forcing their opponents to perpetrate an mean of 19.7 fouls per game.

LJ Cryer buries a triple and Jim Nantz is loving it 🙌#MarchMadness @UHCougarMBK pic.twitter.com/Ga7rSesRLV

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 25, 2024

The Cougars cannot get themselves into foul problem again. Not only will Duke make them salary from nan kindness stripe – A&M only made 29 of their 45 free throws (64%) – but Houston is going to request each their shooters connected nan level successful nan game’s biggest moments.

Another facet that led to Houston’s near-exit was each nan violative rebounds they gave up to A&M. The Aggies grabbed 22 violative rebounds, which included 12 successful nan 2nd half. Once again, there’s a agleam ray present successful that Texas A&M led nan nation, by a adjacent amount, successful violative rebounds per crippled – they averaged 15.3 per crippled and nan second-best was conscionable 13. Duke only averages 9 violative rebounds per crippled (129th), and Houston only allows 8.7 per crippled (196th).

If Houston allows Duke to deed nan solid and get immoderate 2nd chance looks, that’s wherever nan Blue Devils could commencement heating up from down nan three-point line.

Duke vs Houston Team Stats Comparison

While location are plentifulness of assemblage hoops stats I could database our for comparison, nan stats beneath are nan ones I judge to beryllium astir important for this matchup:

10th NET Ranking 1st
5-4 Quadrant 1 Record 16-4
6-4 Quadrant 2 Record 3-0
6th (+26.99) KenPom AdjEM 2nd (+31.58)
5th (122.6) KP Adj Off Efficiency 14th (119.6)
19th (95.6) KP Adj Def Eff 2nd (88.0)
245th (66.6) KP Adj Tempo 346th (63.7)
71st (+9.09) KP SOS 22nd (+11.14)
199th (+0.05) KP Non-Conf SOS 225th (-1.00)
13th (38.1%) 3P% 129th (34.9%)
71st (32.1%) Opponent 3P% 10th (30.0%)
183rd (72.1%) FT% 296th (69.1%)
129th (9.0) Off Rebounds 7th (12.3)
77th (7.7) Opp Off Rebounds 196th (8.7)

As I mentioned above, I judge three-point shooting and violative rebounding will play a large domiciled successful determining who advances to nan Elite Eight.

Duke vs Houston Predictions & Pick

In spite of Houston’s struggles successful nan 2nd round, I do still spot them arsenic nan amended squad successful this matchup. I judge A&M was capable to utilization Houston successful ways nan immense mostly of teams cannot – connected nan violative solid and by putting them successful foul problem by slashing truthful well. I don’t judge Duke tin use nan aforesaid pressure.

However, Houston’s inability to put nan Aggies distant precocious does interest maine a little. They don’t person a ton of scoring extent and tin beryllium a small excessively reliant connected violative rebounds astatine times. So, I don’t consciousness awesome laying nan points here, arsenic I deliberation Duke has nan violative firepower to support this 1 close. Instead, I americium going to trade different same-game parlay pinch Houston moneyline and LJ Cryer to people 12+ points.

Cryer has scored 20 and 17, respectively, successful Houston’s 2 tourney games, and has scored astatine slightest 12 successful 10 of Houston’s 12 wins that came by 10 points aliases less. When nan Cougars triumph adjacent games, which this 1 projects to be, Cryer scores.

Pick: Houston moneyline & LJ Cryer 12+ points same-game parlay (-110) astatine DraftKings

If you find yourself successful a authorities that does not let college hoops subordinate props, you tin switch retired Cryer’s points for nan complete connected an alternate squad full for Houston. The Cougars person scored 100 and 86 points, respectively, successful their 2 tourney games, and person posted astatine slightest 67 points successful each but 5 games this season. I don’t judge they’re beating Duke pinch immoderate little than 67.

Alternate Pick: Houston moneyline & Houston complete 66.5 points (-115) astatine BetMGM

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After moving successful TV, Matt turned his attraction towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been pinch america since 2016 and serves arsenic SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited pinch creating our futures trackers, SBD's people predictor, SBD Sharp, and his ain exemplary for calculating NFL SOS, among different products.


After moving successful TV, Matt turned his attraction towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been pinch america since 2016 and serves arsenic SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited pinch creating our futures trackers, SBD's people predictor, SBD Sharp, and his ain exemplary for calculating NFL SOS, among different products.

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